Miami at Dallas Breakdown

Wednesday, November 26, 2003
Robert Henderson
MDBW Staff Writer

The Dallas Cowboys might not be as tough of an opponent as you think. They are a very good team, don't get me wrong, but they seem to be very evenly matched with the Dolphins. Along with that, they seem to be the better team because they were not expected to even break .500 this season, and now they are the #1 seed in the NFC, while Miami was expected by some to win the Super Bowl, and right now would only be the #6 seed in the AFC. The fact is that these are two very evenly matched teams, and it is a toss up as to who will win on Thursday.

Let's start with each team's record. The Cowboys are 8-3. They have won 6 of those 8 games against teams with below .500 records. Of the two teams that they have beaten who are above .500 are the Carolina Panthers, and the Philadelphia Eagles. Carolina is a very similar team to New England in that they have gotten very lucky all season long, and they could easily be 1-9 at this point. The only team that they have beaten by more than 6 points is the Atlanta Falcons. Dallas squeaked by them on a late touchdown on Sunday at home. The Philadelphia Eagles, the other winning team who the 'Boys have beaten are 8-3 as well. However, do you remember when they beat these Eagles? They were 2-2, the fans wanted McNabb's neck, and they had no running game. Yet, the Cowboys only squeaked past them at home by a score of 23-21. On a side note, they have also been shut out twice this season.

The Dolphins record is 7-4, but could very easily, and should be at least 10-1, or 9-2. The only team they actually lost to fair and square was the Tennessee Titans in a 31-7 shellacking. The other 3 losses (Houston, New England, Indianapolis) could have very well gone the other way. The defense folded and let Houston rally for a late field goal to win; Mare missed two field goals that could have beaten New England; and Terrell Buckley set the offense up in excellent field position (the 15 yard line) for a go ahead TD at the two minute warning against Indianapolis. However, Griese fumbled for the second time in the game, and the Colts' victory was sealed.

Now, let's get into the system by system breakdown:

Dallas's Running game against Miami's Run defense

In both their shut-out losses, the Cowboys only gained 60 and 84 yards total. This forces Quincy Carter to win the game for them, and when he has to do that, he forces the ball and makes mistakes. The Cowboys' leading rusher this season is Troy Hambrick, who only has 644 yards this season, and if he stays on pace, won't break 1000 yards this season. Miami's run defense is ranked 4th in the NFL verses Dallas's rushing offense which is ranked 12th.

Advantage: Dolphins.

Dallas's Passing game against Miami's Pass defense

Quincy Carter has flourished under Bill Parcells, and has outplayed any expectations people had of him during the offseason. He is not a great quarterback, so a 72.4 rating with 11 TDs and 13 INTs is good for him. If he doesn't have a running game against the Dolphins, he will be forced into making mistakes which could cost the Cowboys the game. Miami's pass defense is only ranked 22nd, and Dallas's pass offense is 15. However, Miami is tied for 3rd in the league with 17 interceptions, and this will be what Carter has to watch out for.

Advantage: Dolphins.

Miami's Running game against Dallas's Run Defense

Ricky Williams has not lived up to his expectations this season. Even though he is going to break 1000 yards and more than that, some expected him to press 2000. Miami has had offensive line problems all season, and though they were better when Fiedler came in against the Redskins and Ricky rushed well, they will be playing against a rushing defense that is number 2 in the league. This is also going to be a key factor for Miami's offense, and if Ricky doesn't break or at least get close to 100 yards, then the Dolphins will probably lose.

Advantage: Cowboys.

Miami's Passing game against Dallas's Pass Defense

Miami's passing has been horrendous for most of the season, and especially in the last few weeks. However, Jay Fiedler is back in there and can make some plays. If he can complete the third down plays, and the running back's can make screen passes into bigger gains, then Miami can succeed in this area. However, it will be a tough job to do. Look for Oronde Gadsden to get a few key third down receptions this week. However, the Dallas pass defense, like its run defense is very strong. They are number 1 in the league against the pass, and it won't be easy for a passing offense that is ranked 29th in the league to do anything against.

Advantage: Cowboys.

Special Teams

Last week, Miami's special teams provided some key plays in order to win the game. Olindo Mare's 51 yard field goal at the end of the half proved very important. Then, to end the game, Matt Turk booted the ball 57 yards which forced a muffed reception and a fumble which was recovered by James McKnight. However, the New England game was lost because of Special teams, and the Baltimore game went into OT because Mare missed in regulation. It has not been as strong for the Dolphins as in recent years. However, Dallas has not been much better. Their punter has only averaged 39 yards a kick, and their kicker is only hitting 76%.

Advantage: Even.

So, as you see, these two teams are very evenly matched, and given Miami's road record this year (5-1), home field is not much of an advantage for the Cowboys. This game will come down to a big play, whether it be on Special Teams, Offense, or Defense, one play might be the deciding factor in this game.

I say the Dolphins get that play, and win 16-13 in Dallas.

Robert Henderson can be reached by e-mailing webmaster@miamidolphinsbahamas.com. Or you can talk about this story and more on the MDBW Forums message board!